The Week in Markets
SpaceX priced its float at $135 a share on 12 June, raising around $75bn for a valuation of roughly $1.75tn – a listing so large it dwarfs the previous record; Saudi Aramco’s $25.6bn debut in 2019. Aviva Investors flagged an unusual twist in this IPO tale: where big IPOs typically reserve just 5–10% of stock for individuals, Elon Musk has suggested up to 25% of the offering could go their way, framing a deal of this magnitude as “a significant test of sentiment.” TwentyFour Asset Management argued that credit is pricing the same story far more soberly: the equity trades on close to 100x revenue and around 260x EV/EBITDA and sits 15% above its IPO price, yet the new bonds – rated BBB+ but changing hands nearer BBB-, some two notches below – suggest “bondholders do not benefit from the upside” if the Moon, Mars, and space-data-centre plans, come good.
🏦 Warsh’s Fed debut: the signal was in the plumbing, not the rate decision
Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC with rates held at 3.5–3.75%, but AllianceBernstein sees the real news lays beyond the decision as the new Chair unveiled five task forces – on Fed communication, the balance sheet, data quality, productivity and jobs in the AI era, and the inflation framework – with findings due around year-end, while his repeated stress on the 2% target read as 'hawkish.' Their base case is still no hike, though a rise now looks likelier than a cut. Columbia Threadneedle observed the market took the meeting hawkishly: half of policymakers see conditions warranting tighter policy this year, inflation forecasts were nudged higher, and rate expectations were pushed up into 2026.
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🌏 Central banks turn hawkish – BoJ hits 1% for the first time since 1995
A repricing of rate risk dominated this weeks news. Columbia Threadneedle highlighted the Bank of Japan’s hike to 1% – its highest since 1995 – with a signal of more to come, while the Bank of England held at 3.75% in a 7–2 vote, with Governor Bailey citing softer energy prices, tighter financial conditions and subdued growth. Columbia Threadneedle has also added US and UK duration and gone long the yen against the dollar. Amundi note that the BoJ looks set to stay on a gradual path, leaning on government relief and secured raw-material supplies, even as eurozone inflation proves sticky at 3.2%, with core revised up to 2.6% on services.
🛢️ Iran–US deal pulls oil lower and ripples across assets
Hopes of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil sharply lower. Amundi said the relief rippled across markets – equities rallied on the deal, the dollar surged, gold fell and short-dated US yields rose as investors leaned toward more Fed hikes. Invesco mention that gold’s usual support from Middle East conflict failed to show this time: the market fixed instead on the inflationary pull of higher oil prices and the prospect of higher interest rates, which weighs on non-yielding assets.
🪙 Gold gives back its record run – now broadly flat on the year
After touching an all-time high above $5,500/oz in late January (with silver above $120), gold has retraced to leave it roughly flat year-to-date – about $4,337 on 15 June versus $4,310 at the end of 2025. Invesco explained the multi-year ascent as a story of relentless central-bank buying – some now targeting a volume rather than a value of holdings, implying price-insensitive demand – alongside a weaker dollar and geopolitical anxiety, with 2026’s volatility partly traced to the nomination of inflation hawk Warsh, after which futures began pricing a rate hike this year. Amundi highlighted the metal slipped again this week as the dollar strengthened on Iran-deal optimism.
📅 Tuesday, June 30, 2026
📅 Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Thursday, July 2, 2026
Friday, July 3, 2026
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