The Week in Markets
SpaceX soared 25% in its Nasdaq debut Friday - shares opened at $170 against the $135 IPO price - as the rockets-to-AI group’s $75bn raise landed as the largest IPO in history; a greenshoe option could lift the total to $86bn at a $1.78tn valuation. Orders ran more than three-fold oversubscribed, with retail investors alone submitting over $100bn in bids. Franklin Templeton cautioned the headline obscures reality: with ~4.2% free float, SpaceX enters the Russell 1000 at just 0.11% weight as telecom, not growth - ‘index investing is rules-based, not headline-based.’ Allianz Global Investors warned capital may ‘migrate toward the newly listed names, potentially challenging incumbents that previously benefited from proxy premia.’
Brent crude fell 5% to $85.80 on Friday after President Trump declared ‘all parties’ had approved final ceasefire points with Tehran, sending Europe’s Stoxx 600 up 1.8% and repricing the first Fed hike from December to March 2027. The relief caps a punishing week: US CPI hit 4.2% in May - a three-year high, with petrol up 50% since the conflict - and IATA reported airline profits halved to $23bn. Invesco assigned 65% probability to a ‘status quo’ ceasefire holding, warning Hormuz traffic remains well below pre-crisis levels. AllianceBernstein flagged aircraft lessors as resilient beneficiaries: a structural shortage of 5,000–8,000 planes will underpin lease rates regardless of when hostilities end.
Source: Invesco
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The European Central Bank raised rates 25bp to 2.25% Thursday - its first hike since 2023 - driving a three-way central bank split: the Bank of England remains at 3.75% as UK GDP fell 0.1% in April; the Fed holds on June 17 under new Chair Warsh. J.P. Morgan Asset Management described Europe’s predicament as a “growth-negative supply shock” and said the US labour market “no longer represents a catalyst for rate cuts” - favouring European front-end duration over US Treasuries. Janus Henderson Investors cautioned the hike is “credibility-driven, not the start of broad tightening,” with rising dispersion making security selection the key European credit return driver.
Gold fell 3.4% to $4,022/oz - a 6-month low - as Iran ceasefire optimism drained speculative positions and 55 tonnes of ETF redemptions hit Western funds, just as ECB data confirmed gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset for the first time since Bretton Woods. State Street Investment Management noted central banks have bought gold for 17 consecutive years - 244t in Q1 alone - while global gold fund holdings remain just 1% of worldwide ETF assets, well below their 3-10% strategic target. PIMCO described gold as "a neutral store of value in a world of partial confidence in fiat currencies."
US consumer prices hit 4.2% in May - a three-year high - as petrol, up 50% since the Iran conflict began, drove the headline surge. Core CPI ran at just 0.2% month-on-month, with core goods prices actually falling -0.1%. BlackRock stressed the "full breadth of the shock has yet to show," warning a prolonged Hormuz closure could push US oil inventories to four-decade lows. Western Asset Management argued the burst is "transitory": with nominal spending growth of 5–6% "already contained," no Fed tightening is needed, and the firm predicted "much better inflation data in the next few months" as energy prices appear to have peaked.
Source: Western Asset
📅 Tuesday, June 16, 2026
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