The Week in Markets
🛢️ Oil tumbles ~13% on the week as the "Dove of Peace" reopens Hormuz
Crude slid into the mid-$70s for the first time since early March, with WTI near $77 a barrel on Friday and heading toward a weekly decline of roughly 8%; on the framework-to-end-the-conflict read, oil fell -13% as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway that carries nearly 20% of the world's oil. Edmond de Rothschild outlined the mechanics behind the relief, noting Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Lombard Odier sees the inflationary pressures arising from the Hormuz blockade are being confined to energy, according to their global inflation nowcaster. Markets have not encountered the ‘wall of inflation’ feared when the war broke out, but the risk of a broadening complex still weighs on rates and bond markets. The recent rise in real yields reflects a level typically associated with higher inflation – namely higher policy rates – and this has been accompanied by increased volatility (see graph below).
🏦 Warsh's first Fed meeting kills the cut — dot plot now points up
The FOMC held at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on June 17 in Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair, but the message flipped: the vote to hold was 12-0 — unanimous, compared to the 8-4 dissent at April's meeting, and nine of the 18 participating policymakers predict at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. The median 2026 dot rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. J.P. Morgan Asset Management examined the duration implications, framing the backdrop as one where the Middle East conflict has created new inflationary pressures but has so far done little to dent the US economy as the labour market increasingly reflects that resilience. BMO Global Asset Management pointed to a structurally higher neutral rate in its 2026 Capital Market Assumptions.
🏛️ ECB breaks ranks — first DM central bank to hike into the supply shock
The European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25 basis point (bp) rate hike, becoming the first major central bank in developed markets to have raised rates in response to the energy-driven inflation impulse. TwentyFour Asset Management cautioned against extrapolating a cycle from it. Muzinich & Co weighed the read-across for sovereign credit in EM Monthly – The Politics of Credit, stressing that institutional strength remains one of the most important drivers of sovereign creditworthiness.
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🪙 Gold dethrones Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset
ECB data confirmed gold accounted for 27% of global central bank reserve assets at the end of 2025 — up from 20% a year earlier — while the share of US Treasuries fell to 22% from 25%. "Geopolitical tensions continue to drive strong central bank demand for gold," ECB President Christine Lagarde wrote in the report. Amundi noted the diversification backdrop, observing that EM equities have held up despite the Iran war, helped by strong earnings growth and the rally in the technology sector. Invesco framed the regime in its 2026 Midyear Outlook: A World Disrupted? Resilience Endures.
🚀 The ETF machine keeps eating the industry — and the SpaceX listing tests the limits
The structural flows story rolls on into the year's marquee listing. aberdeen weighed whether the valuation holds up in SpaceX IPO: priced for the stars – and beyond, while State Street Investment Management flagged the index-mechanics tension beneath it: earnings remain the lifeblood of this bull market, even as the macro backdrop grows more challenging. Both point to the same engine — and BlackRock's Q1 print remains the clearest read on it, with iShares pulling a record $132 billion in net inflows as the passive machine keeps reshaping where capital lands.
📅 Monday, June 23, 2026
📅 Tuesday, June 24, 2026
📅 Wednesday, June 25, 2026
📅 Thursday, June 26, 2026
📅 Friday, June 27, 2026
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Markets Recon editors.
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