2026 midyear outlook: A world disrupted? Resilience endures.

In a time of immense disruption, we believe resilience endures and provides a favourable investment environment for the rest of the year.

The Week in Markets

Ceasefire breaks the inflation fever, Warsh breaks the dovish Fed

Crude slid into the mid-$70s for the first time since early March, with WTI near $77 a barrel on Friday and heading toward a weekly decline of roughly 8%; on the framework-to-end-the-conflict read, oil fell -13% as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway that carries nearly 20% of the world's oil.

Edmond de Rothschild outlined the mechanics behind the relief, noting Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Lombard Odier sees the inflationary pressures arising from the Hormuz blockade are being confined to energy, according to their global inflation nowcaster. Markets have not encountered the ‘wall of inflation’ feared when the war broke out, but the risk of a broadening complex still weighs on rates and bond markets. The recent rise in real yields reflects a level typically associated with higher inflation – namely higher policy rates – and this has been accompanied by increased volatility (see graph below).

One hike done, but don’t bet on a long cycle

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis point (bp) rate hike. becoming the first major central bank in developed markets to have raised rates in response to...

Market Flash: The Dove of peace

•    Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. •    Despite low...

EM monthly - The politics of credit

Political headlines can be noisy, but institutional strength remains one of the most important drivers of sovereign creditworthiness. From Hungary and Colombia to Romania and Indonesia, political d...

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