The Week in Markets

The Fed hikes, and AI becomes a credit story

The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25bp to 3.75 to 4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5%. The Bank of Japan followed on Friday, hiking 25bp to a 31-year high of 1.25%. Market commentary focused on Fed credibility, bond allocation, and AI's credit market impact.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlighted the FOMC's unanimous decision to lift the target range to 3.75 to 4.00%. The committee revised its growth forecasts upward to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027, raised core PCE expectations to 3.4% for this year, and established a median dot plot of 4.1%, signalling one final rate hike in 2026. For the second consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh abstained from...

submitting individual projections and openly critiqued pure data dependence as a "dangerous preoccupation".

Meanwhile, UBS noted that with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%, markets are pricing in roughly three more hikes through mid-2027, an outlook the firm views as overly aggressive compared to its own expectation of a single remaining hike in December.

The market’s blind spot

My take: investors are looking for growth in the wrong places

Flash Macro: U.S. FOMC September 2026

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, consistent with our expectations and with our view that this is an adjustment cycle.

APAC Quarterly: Japan's inflation problem

Japan’s inflation remains sticky, with labour shortages and higher commodity prices likely to keep cost pressures elevated. Meanwhile, surging JGB yields are increasing local portfolio risks. Gold...

Latest Outlooks

Asian currency outlook: Is the yen set to strengthen?

Explore why the Japanese yen and other Asian currencies could strengthen as inflation risks, policy shifts, and reduced carry trades weigh on the US dollar.

Beyond the tower: Why smarter risk analysis is the key to protecting data center investments

Optimize data center insurance with risk-led analysis that improves resilience, reduces costs, and protects investments.

Emerging markets, AI, and index concentration: Navigating a different opportunity set

How artificial intelligence, technology leadership, and record index concentration are reshaping emerging market equities—and the implications for portfolio construction.

Why market structure rewards active management in local currency EMD

The dispersion between economies, the distance between benchmark eligibility and true opportunity, the multiple independent drivers of return, and the inefficiencies thrown up by the market's own m...

Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts

Our global capital markets outlooks generally moved lower in the second quarter as risk assets rallied sharply. The rebound reversed much of a first-quarter rotation into value stocks, with strong...

10-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Our Mid-Year Capital Market Assumptions highlight that asset return forecasts have generally improved, supported by higher interest rates and more attractive equity valuations. Our 10-year assumpti...

Long-Term Asset Class Forecasts: Q3 2026

Our long-term asset class forecasts are forward-looking estimates of total return and risk premia for major asset classes. Read our update for Q3 2026.

CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS - July 2026

Our latest Capital Markets Assumptions point  to a familiar but important conclusion: we  still see a narrower band of outcomes across  asset classes, as central banks do less to  suppress rates in...

00

investment research docs

00

AM firms

To be a Contributor

Contact Us