How to position in fixed income as Fed hikes rates

Financial market coverage by the UBS CIO House View. The Fed’s hawkish rate hike has led markets to price in more tightening.

The Week in Markets

The Fed hikes, and AI becomes a credit story

The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25bp to 3.75 to 4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5%. The Bank of Japan followed on Friday, hiking 25bp to a 31-year high of 1.25%. Market commentary focused on Fed credibility, bond allocation, and AI's credit market impact.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlighted the FOMC's unanimous decision to lift the target range to 3.75 to 4.00%. The committee revised its growth forecasts upward to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027, raised core PCE expectations to 3.4% for this year, and established a median dot plot of 4.1%, signalling one final rate hike in 2026. For the second consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh abstained from...

submitting individual projections and openly critiqued pure data dependence as a "dangerous preoccupation".

Meanwhile, UBS noted that with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%, markets are pricing in roughly three more hikes through mid-2027, an outlook the firm views as overly aggressive compared to its own expectation of a single remaining hike in December.

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