2026 midyear outlook: A world disrupted? Resilience endures.

In a time of immense disruption, we believe resilience endures and provides a favourable investment environment for the rest of the year.

The Week in Markets

SpaceX surges 25% in Nasdaq debut - largest IPO in history opens the AI listing floodgates

SpaceX soared 25% in its Nasdaq debut Friday - shares opened at $170 against the $135 IPO price - as the rockets-to-AI group’s $75bn raise landed as the largest IPO in history; a greenshoe option could lift the total to $86bn at a $1.78tn valuation. Orders ran more than three-fold oversubscribed, with retail investors alone submitting over $100bn in bids.

Franklin Templeton cautioned the headline obscures reality: with ~4.2% free float, SpaceX enters the Russell 1000 at just 0.11% weight as telecom, not growth - ‘index investing is rules-based, not headline-based.’

Allianz Global Investors warned capital may ‘migrate toward the newly listed names, potentially challenging incumbents that previously benefited from proxy premia.’

One hike done, but don’t bet on a long cycle

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis point (bp) rate hike. becoming the first major central bank in developed markets to have raised rates in response to...

Market Flash: The Dove of peace

•    Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. •    Despite low...

EM monthly - The politics of credit

Political headlines can be noisy, but institutional strength remains one of the most important drivers of sovereign creditworthiness. From Hungary and Colombia to Romania and Indonesia, political d...

Latest Outlooks

Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2026

Two powerful forces have reshaped global markets in the first half of 2026. Firstly, the rapid adoption of AI is driving capital investment in data centres and supporting technology. Secondly, outl...

2026 Midyear ETF Market Outlook: Resilient fundamentals, rising fragility

Earnings—the lifeblood of this bull market—continue to drive the multiyear rally in risk assets, even as the macro backdrop grows more challenging.

2026 Midyear Investment Outlook – China Equities

Discover the 2026 midyear outlook for China equities, as AI innovation, policy support, earnings recovery, and liquidity shape market opportunities.

Positive earnings support EM outlook

EM equities have held up despite the Iran war, helped by strong earnings growth and the rally in the technology sector.

Is any area of the market “affordable”?

Royce Investment Partners: In the midst of a rally, Co-CIO Francis Gannon looks at how valuations for the small- and micro-cap indexes compare to large-cap—and why earnings remain key to market lea...

AI is booming – but is it responsible?

We believe AI – artificial intelligence, must be developed and used in a way that respects people, protects the planet and supports long-term value creation.

Bond Bulletin: The duration game

The Middle East conflict has created new inflationary pressures but has so far done little to dent the US economy. As the labour market increasingly reflects this resilience, we examine the implica...

2026 Capital Market Assumptions: The impact of AI on asset class returns

Assessing an environment pointing towards a structurally higher neutral rate, stronger long-term earnings growth, and a renewed need for discipline in both duration management and equity valuation.

Are There Unintended Risks in Your Capital Market Assumptions?

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an essential part of portfolio construction, but they can add unintended risks. Our approach rearranges the process, connecting risk assumptions directly with...

Multi-Asset Team: Capital Market Assumptions – 2026 update

The Multi-Asset Team provide an update on their long-term model-based expectations for capital markets at the start of 2026.

2025 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

00

investment research docs

00

AM firms

To be a Contributor

Contact Us