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The Week in Markets

The calm breaks: Iran escalates, the chip trade cracks — and beneath the mega-caps, the market broadens

Early in the week, Northern Trust's Vaibhav Tandon framed the standoff "lock, stock and barrel" and explained why oil's response had stayed surprisingly muted. His central warning was that those cushions are temporary, with strategic reserves near multi-decade lows and refined-fuel markets tightening. By Friday, that warning was being tested in real time: oil spiked again, a global chip sell-off took hold, and risk sentiment turned as Washington signalled fresh escalation against Iran.

MFS's energy team had argued the same structural point. Iran's unprecedented closure of the strait briefly pushed oil above ~$100 before deal hopes pulled it back, yet one- and two-year prices still sit around ~$5 above pre-war levels, and the episode has reprioritised security over sustainability in the "energy trilemma." The lesson of the week is that the calm both described was never stability... just the interval before the next shock.

Podcast: In tune with the markets – Hot stuff

Rising earnings continue to push markets higher, but we might be approaching the 'as good as it gets' moment, sometime soon, @ArnoutvanRijn thinks. Tune in to listen to the full 15-minute episode o...

Economics Weekly: Money Matters Again – Inflation and the Fed’s Evolving Framework

In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal looks at the past remarks of Greg Mankiw, who was appointed (along with William White and Thomas Sargent) to examine the Fed’s inflation framework, to ga...

Trending Forward: Metals & Mining

The evolution and future of softwareInvesting Insights from the Sustainable Equity Team

Latest Outlooks

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At the end of 2025, we asked if real estate would finally escape its Groundhog Day loop; have we just had another go around?

Midyear 2026 outlook: The concentration paradox

Explore Nuveen's Global Investment Committee's perspectives on the state of the economy, portfolio construction themes and our bes...

2026 midyear outlook: A world disrupted? Resilience endures

In a time of immense disruption, we believe resilience endures and provides a favourable investment environment for the rest of the year.

2026 Capital Market Assumptions: The impact of AI on asset class returns

Assessing an environment pointing towards a structurally higher neutral rate, stronger long-term earnings growth, and a renewed need for discipline in both duration management and equity valuation.

Are There Unintended Risks in Your Capital Market Assumptions?

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an essential part of portfolio construction, but they can add unintended risks. Our approach rearranges the process, connecting risk assumptions directly with...

Multi-Asset Team: Capital Market Assumptions – 2026 update

The Multi-Asset Team provide an update on their long-term model-based expectations for capital markets at the start of 2026.

2025 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

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