Heat – the new supply shock

El Niño is turning heat into a new supply shock, with the main investment implications in agriculture, water infrastructure and grid resilience as higher temperatures pressure food output, water loss and power systems.

The Week in Markets

The calm breaks: Iran escalates, the chip trade cracks — and beneath the mega-caps, the market broadens

Early in the week, Northern Trust's Vaibhav Tandon framed the standoff "lock, stock and barrel" and explained why oil's response had stayed surprisingly muted. His central warning was that those cushions are temporary, with strategic reserves near multi-decade lows and refined-fuel markets tightening. By Friday, that warning was being tested in real time: oil spiked again, a global chip sell-off took hold, and risk sentiment turned as Washington signalled fresh escalation against Iran.

MFS's energy team had argued the same structural point. Iran's unprecedented closure of the strait briefly pushed oil above ~$100 before deal hopes pulled it back, yet one- and two-year prices still sit around ~$5 above pre-war levels, and the episode has reprioritised security over sustainability in the "energy trilemma." The lesson of the week is that the calm both described was never stability... just the interval before the next shock.

Beyond Silicon Valley: Where AI Value Is Really Created

ClearBridge Investments outlines why the artificial intelligence boom has been led by Silicon Valley, but the next phase of value creation may be decided by physical bottlenecks.

Fed on hold, markets in action

The Fed left interest rates in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. The decision was not unanimous, with 3 dissenters in favour of a hike, revealing divisions...

Urban family housing: Unlocking the missing middle in UK rental markets

In the UK, urban family housing can combine the delivery of high-quality homes to underserved markets with tangible local outcomes, alongside long-term rental growth and attractive total returns.

Latest Outlooks

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Geopolitical tensions remain elevated and are likely to generate periodic volatility but the broader backdrop remains supportive of risk assets, underpinned by resilient global growth, healthy labo...

Hedge Fund Outlook H2 2026

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2015: The growing challenge of heat in Europe's cities

The 2015 European heatwave highlighted the human and economic costs of extreme heat. WRN-supported research explores parametric finance and nature-based solutions to help cities adapt.

European Infrastructure

Shaping the industry: Electrification, affordability, and AI

India in focus

Our latest research into India’s investment opportunities and growth prospects shows why Indian equities warrant focused consideration as a core allocation in investor portfolios.

Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts

Our global capital markets outlooks generally moved lower in the second quarter as risk assets rallied sharply. The rebound reversed much of a first-quarter rotation into value stocks, with strong...

10-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Our Mid-Year Capital Market Assumptions highlight that asset return forecasts have generally improved, supported by higher interest rates and more attractive equity valuations. Our 10-year assumpti...

Long-Term Asset Class Forecasts: Q3 2026

Our long-term asset class forecasts are forward-looking estimates of total return and risk premia for major asset classes. Read our update for Q3 2026.

Capital market assumptions | Q1 2026

Invesco Solutions develops capital market assumptions (CMAs) that provide long-term estimates for the behaviour of major asset classes globally.

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