Market Perspectives: Falling oil, rising optimism

Investor sentiment has improved as markets assess the possibility of further de-escalation between the US and Iran – whether through a broader agreement or an extension of the ceasefire.

The Week in Markets

Oil sees biggest monthly fall since 2020 - but relief could be fleeting

Brent crude slid to around $92, capping its biggest monthly decline since 2020 - down roughly 18% on the month - amid signs the US and Iran could be nearing a deal, with a reported 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the relief may prove fleeting.

Chevron's CEO, Mike Wirth told Financial Times he expects renewed upward pressure into summer as 12-13mn barrels a day stay offline and buffers thin, while Adnoc says full flows will not return before 2027. Aviva Investors flagged how fast sentiment reverses - oil snapped back 4% mid-week on fresh strikes.

CI Global Asset Management cautioned that energy risks to vulnerable emerging economies stay elevated if Hormuz remains shut through summer.

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