A Wake-Up Call from Iran

The apparent breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire is a reminder of the ongoing risk of energy supply disruptions.

The Week in Markets

The ceasefire that wasn't: Iran hostilities resume – and the AI supply wall meets the bond market

Last month's US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding, signed at Versailles, is already unravelling.

Lazard Asset Management's Ronald Temple called the breakdown a wake-up call, warning that with strategic reserves drawn to minimum operational levels in places, a return to March-level hostilities could drive a far sharper oil-price surge than markets are braced for.

MFS Investment Management reported the ceasefire formally collapsed this week – Iran's Revolutionary Guard damaged multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump declared talks "a waste of time," and both sides traded strikes – yet global equities still rose, led by energy and semiconductors. Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management framed the resumption as catching investors off guard, sending oil close to $80 and gas toward €50/MWh – reviving precisely the energy-driven inflation fears now hanging over the Fed.

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