War In The Middle East: Economic Implications

Energy market disruptions will be felt worldwide. Carl Tannenbaum and Vaibhav Tandon explain.

The Week in Markets

Iran war triggers global energy shock

Brent crude surged above $90 a barrel for the first time in nearly two years, capping one of the biggest weekly gains on record as the Iran war disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a route carrying roughly 20% of global oil trade. Energy markets reacted first: oil jumped sharply while European gas prices spiked and bond yields rose as investors repriced inflation risks.

Aviva Investors noted equities responded unevenly, with Europe and emerging markets hit hardest by energy exposure while US stocks proved more resilient - but still down -1.24% on the week.

LaSalle Investment Management said the key transmission channel is higher oil feeding into inflation and interest rates, with Europe and Asia most vulnerable to a prolonged disruption. William Blair added that nations like South Korea were highly dependent on energy from the region - leading to a dramatic 20% fall for the Kospi in a matter of days before recovering slightly (see chart), while energy-driven inflation could complicate central bank policy if the shock persists.

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