US Federal Reserve: On hold, with a good chance of a hike

As expected, the US Federal Reserve kept rates on hold following their June meeting, with the Fed funds target range remaining at 3½ to 3¾% with the vote unanimous.

The Week in Markets

Ceasefire breaks the inflation fever, Warsh breaks the dovish Fed

Crude slid into the mid-$70s for the first time since early March, with WTI near $77 a barrel on Friday and heading toward a weekly decline of roughly 8%; on the framework-to-end-the-conflict read, oil fell -13% as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway that carries nearly 20% of the world's oil.

Edmond de Rothschild outlined the mechanics behind the relief, noting Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Lombard Odier sees the inflationary pressures arising from the Hormuz blockade are being confined to energy, according to their global inflation nowcaster. Markets have not encountered the ‘wall of inflation’ feared when the war broke out, but the risk of a broadening complex still weighs on rates and bond markets. The recent rise in real yields reflects a level typically associated with higher inflation – namely higher policy rates – and this has been accompanied by increased volatility (see graph below).

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