Take Two: Fed signals further rate increase; US stocks hit record high

What do you need to know? US interest rates are likely to increase again before the end of 2026, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed. All members of the rate-setting committee voted in favour of a 25 basis-point rate hike to 3.75%-4.0% in September, and “most” felt that another hike “would likely

The Week in Markets

The long end has stopped listening to the Fed

Wilmington Trust's Luke Tilley and Nash Peyton note that pricing for an October hike fell from 70% to 20% in ten days, yet the 10-year briefly touched 5.36% on 7 October, the highest since 2002. They blame real yields and a global glut of debt, say Treasury buybacks brought "only momentary relief", and have added investment grade bonds.

Income Research + Management sees buyers at these levels: non-dealer bidders took more than 97% of the latest 10-year auction.

Man Group's systematic team argues bonds still hedge equities: since 1900, with inflation between 2% and 4% and steady, 10-year Treasuries returned about 4% a year above inflation. On their numbers, the damage comes when inflation is above 4% and rising fast, as in 2022.

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