Mapping the fallout: Iran, oil, and global markets

Macro impact: The Iran conflict and risks to the Strait of Hormuz do not yet warrant a major change to our base case macro outlook. Growth adjustments remain limited, inflation has nudged higher, and central banks are broadly in a wait-and-see mode, with policy rates expected to remain largely stable. 

The Week in Markets

Brent tops $100 as Hormuz shutdown bites

Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, capping a weekly advance of over 11% as the Strait of Hormuz - carrying ~20% of global oil trade - remained effectively closed. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader dimmed hopes for quick de-escalation.

Robeco warned that the IEA’s 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release offsets only ~20% of lost flows, meaning demand destruction must do the heavy lifting.

Amundi cautioned that even if the Strait partially reopens, Europe and Asia will compete for rerouted supply, keeping Brent elevated between $90 and $110 a barrel for months. Neuberger Berman flagged that crude sustained near or above $100 a barrel for several months would require a meaningful revision of their outlook.

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