Though Shaky, Markets Welcome Ceasefire

With just hours to go before a threatened US attack on Iran’s domestic infrastructure, the US and Iran reached a tentative two-week ceasefire ahead of talks scheduled for Saturday, April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan. Among the terms of the ceasefire is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz...

The Week in Markets

US-Iran ceasefire ignites biggest stock rally since 2022 

A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran sparked the sharpest equity gains in years. The Stoxx 600 surged 3.7% — its best session in more than four years — while Germany's Dax jumped 4.8% and oil plunged below $100. Hours later, Trump threatened 50% tariffs on any nation arming Iran, a warning widely read as aimed at Beijing and Moscow.

EFG International raised its base-case ceasefire probability to 70%, but cautioned oil is unlikely to fall below $80 even under a deal.

Janus Henderson Investors warned that even if the Strait reopens, supply normalisation will take months — and for LNG, repairs could take years.

The opportunities in Asia-Pacific private credit

A rising middle class and growth expected to outpace other developed economies means Asia-Pacific could offer opportunities for private credit investors wishing to expand exposure beyond traditiona...

THE MACRO FACTORS DRIVING STEEPER YIELD CURVE RISKS

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The Beginning of the End?

The effects of the Iran war are becoming evident in the macro data and some are likely to persist.

Latest Outlooks

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