Eurozone signals caution on June rate hike

PMI weakness and softer inflation reshape rate paths across Europe and Japan, as demand destruction and policy shifts drive caution among major central banks.

The Week in Markets

Inflation shock from the Iran war sends bond yields to multi-year highs

Two hot inflation prints jolted markets this week: CPI hit a three-year high of 3.8% and producer prices jumped 1.4% on the month, the steepest since 2022. Bonds sold off all week — the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56% and Washington sold 30-year debt at 5.046%, the first 5%-plus auction since 2007. Equities set records mid-week before a 1% Friday slide; Brent held above $108.

AllianceBernstein flagged that real household paychecks have been flat for a year, leaving the Warsh-led Fed facing a supply-shock conundrum.

Northern Trust has scrapped its forecast Q4 rate cut, noting three FOMC members dissented against easing as the savings rate hit a three-year low.

Global Bond Yields—The Kettle Is Whistling

Bond yields are trending higher as investors price in persistent inflationary pressures, elevated fiscal deficits and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, prompting a reassessment of risk premiums...

Iran Deal Hopes Rise Again

Equities recover from early-week weakness as hopes for Iran deal rise.

Japan Investment Commentary and Market Outlook April 2026

Strong equity performance supported by improving fundamentals:Japanese equities rallied sharply in April, underpinned...

Latest Outlooks

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Fixed-Income Outlook: From Oil Shock to Oil Spillover?

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2026 2Q outlook: Casting a wider net

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2026 Capital Market Assumptions: The impact of AI on asset class returns

Assessing an environment pointing towards a structurally higher neutral rate, stronger long-term earnings growth, and a renewed need for discipline in both duration management and equity valuation.

Are There Unintended Risks in Your Capital Market Assumptions?

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an essential part of portfolio construction, but they can add unintended risks. Our approach rearranges the process, connecting risk assumptions directly with...

Multi-Asset Team: Capital Market Assumptions – 2026 update

The Multi-Asset Team provide an update on their long-term model-based expectations for capital markets at the start of 2026.

2025 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

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