Allocation Views: Looking through the energy cost shock—stronger earnings, lower tail risks

In this month’s Allocation Views, the Middle East conflict and its impact on the global economy in 2026 continue to be the chief concern for asset allocation, as inflationary pressures challenge centr...

The Week in Markets

The real Hormuz shock isn’t just oil

Brent crude whipsawed from above $110 to below $100 this week before rebounding above $100 as fresh clashes near the Strait of Hormuz exposed how fragile the ceasefire remains.

William Blair described Hormuz as “Schrödinger’s Strait” — neither open nor closed — noting vessel traffic has fallen from roughly 100–130 ships a day to just 0–10, leaving the world short as much as 4.6mn barrels per day even after substitutions.

AllianceBernstein argued the bigger shock extends well beyond crude: Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex has lost capacity equal to 3–4% of global LNG supply, while jet fuel — now the tightest part of the barrel — has already triggered 20,000 Lufthansa cancellations.

The week in markets: Markets chase the headlines

Markets were driven by fast‑moving headlines this week, swinging between rising tensions and hopes of a lasting resolution in Iran. But strong company earnings kept equities near record highs despi...

Bond Bulletin: Squeezing opportunity out of tight EM sovereign spreads

Following strong performance in 2025 and a solid start to 2026, emerging market (EM) hard currency bonds corrected slightly in the early stages of the conflict in Iran but have since reversed much...

Can the US Job Market Stay Strong?

Although nonfarm payroll growth has improved in recent months, I expect weaker results ahead.

Latest Outlooks

Equity Outlook: Middle East War, Energy Shock Test Fragile Markets

Markets are pricing in a wider range of scenarios as geopolitics and AI reshape the landscape. Global equities declined during a volatile first quarter as the war in Iran roiled energy markets and...

Equity outlook: From positive to perilous

2026 equity outlook: Middle East risks, global market impact, and undervalued pharma—what investors should watch now.

Fixed-Income Outlook: From Oil Shock to Oil Spillover?

Oil’s rise could linger. Here are six ways bond investors can build resilience. Geopolitics rarely stay contained to the headlines for long. Conflict in the Middle East is already reverberating t...

2026 2Q outlook: Casting a wider net

Explore Nuveen's Global Investment Committee perspectives on the state of the economy, investment markets in 2026 and strategies.

2026 Capital Market Assumptions: The impact of AI on asset class returns

Assessing an environment pointing towards a structurally higher neutral rate, stronger long-term earnings growth, and a renewed need for discipline in both duration management and equity valuation.

Are There Unintended Risks in Your Capital Market Assumptions?

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an essential part of portfolio construction, but they can add unintended risks. Our approach rearranges the process, connecting risk assumptions directly with...

Multi-Asset Team: Capital Market Assumptions – 2026 update

The Multi-Asset Team provide an update on their long-term model-based expectations for capital markets at the start of 2026.

2025 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

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