Europe: Forging its own way

By BNP Paribas Asset Management, Chief Market Strategist Daniel Morris. The number of challenges facing Europe only seems to grow. The Middle East conflict highlights Europe's continued dependency on fossil fuel imports from the region, while the pace of its drive to expand renewable energy use has slackened. Trade relations with the US are at...

The Week in Markets

One more hike or four: managers split on how far the Fed goes

A week after the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike, managers agree on the direction and disagree on the distance, and most think the market has run ahead of the Fed. The dot plot points to one more hike by year-end; futures price two.

In the one-or-two-more camp: Nuveen (one more, then 2027 cut risk), Neuberger Berman (December, then a short cycle as core inflation falls), UBS (December, then hold) and BNY Investments (two more over 12 months, fewer than markets imply).

Leaning higher: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter now sees hikes in December and March to a 4.25 to 4.50% terminal rate, while Capital Group's Darrell Spence expects three or four more, towards 5%, by the end of 2027. The common thread, put plainly by Amundi: resilient growth is what lets the Fed keep going. BNY and UBS both call the market's pricing of the path overextended.

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10-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Our Mid-Year Capital Market Assumptions highlight that asset return forecasts have generally improved, supported by higher interest rates and more attractive equity valuations. Our 10-year assumpti...

Long-Term Asset Class Forecasts: Q3 2026

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CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS - July 2026

Our latest Capital Markets Assumptions point  to a familiar but important conclusion: we  still see a narrower band of outcomes across  asset classes, as central banks do less to  suppress rates in...

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