Market Flash: Avoiding a monetary policy mistake is still possible.

The US-Iran agreement has unblocked oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude to fall to around $70 per barrel and fuelling the view that the energy crisis is now on the wane.

The Week in Markets

The Fed goes quiet: Warsh tears up the forward-guidance playbook – and strategists are counting the cost

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting is still reverberating, less for the on-hold decision than for what wasn't said.

Northern Trust noted the new Chair halved the length of the policy statement, stripped out all hints of a future outlook and declined to submit his own "dot" – true to his confirmation-hearing declaration; "I don't believe in forward guidance." Their counter: projections don't need to be right to be useful, since they reveal the Fed's reaction function – and with PCE inflation annualising above 4%, less guidance risks more volatile asset valuations.

 State Street Investment Management framed it as the first meaningful retrenchment from a transparency revolution dating back to 1994, warning that a quieter Fed could mean weaker policy transmission, drifting inflation expectations and higher term premiums – while conceding the "false precision" critique of the dot plot has merit.

Their prescription: refine the message, don't go dark.

Global Equity Pulse: Banks—A Penny Saved

In this month’s issue, the outlook for global banks is starting to improve following a few difficult years. Templeton Global Investments offers its analysis of this and other market trends.

Should investment grade prime office landlords worry about AI?

AI is reinforcing prime office demand in the short term, but the bigger question is whether productivity gains will ultimately limit hiring and space needs.

What happens with a less transparent Fed?

A less transparent Fed could increase uncertainty, weaken policy transmission and raise market volatility as investors lose key signals on rates and risk.

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The Viewpoint: The last ever energy crisis?

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While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

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