Iran and China in the Spotlight

This week highlighted the impact of geopolitics on the global economy and markets.

The Week in Markets

Inflation shock from the Iran war sends bond yields to multi-year highs

Two hot inflation prints jolted markets this week: CPI hit a three-year high of 3.8% and producer prices jumped 1.4% on the month, the steepest since 2022. Bonds sold off all week — the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56% and Washington sold 30-year debt at 5.046%, the first 5%-plus auction since 2007. Equities set records mid-week before a 1% Friday slide; Brent held above $108.

AllianceBernstein flagged that real household paychecks have been flat for a year, leaving the Warsh-led Fed facing a supply-shock conundrum.

Northern Trust has scrapped its forecast Q4 rate cut, noting three FOMC members dissented against easing as the savings rate hit a three-year low.

Nikkei’s rally: is it the yen? No, it’s tech sentiment

The Nikkei’s strong rally is less a reflection of yen weakness and more driven by global tech sentiment, particularly the semiconductor capex boom. At the same time, Japan’s structural transition a...

Bond navigators: Enter the BIFs

Move over PIIGS, and enter the BIFs, or Britain, Italy and France – as it seems a term coined on our Rates desk is now gaining wider traction. The BIFs reflect a shift in focus from legacy concerns...

Rethinking US equity exposure through sectors

Stock market sectors are diverging dramatically. Dina Ting explores what has changed in the past three years—and the past 20—alongside implications for investors.

Latest Outlooks

Equity Outlook: Middle East War, Energy Shock Test Fragile Markets

Markets are pricing in a wider range of scenarios as geopolitics and AI reshape the landscape. Global equities declined during a volatile first quarter as the war in Iran roiled energy markets and...

Equity outlook: From positive to perilous

2026 equity outlook: Middle East risks, global market impact, and undervalued pharma—what investors should watch now.

Fixed-Income Outlook: From Oil Shock to Oil Spillover?

Oil’s rise could linger. Here are six ways bond investors can build resilience. Geopolitics rarely stay contained to the headlines for long. Conflict in the Middle East is already reverberating t...

2026 2Q outlook: Casting a wider net

Explore Nuveen's Global Investment Committee perspectives on the state of the economy, investment markets in 2026 and strategies.

Iran War Fallout: The Real Market Risks Aren’t Just Oil

Energy prices matter—but the bigger shock may hit other areas that feed into inflation and growth.  With the war in Iran dragging past the original ceasefire deadline, how might the situation impac...

Private credit under the hood: Separating headlines from fundamentals

Headlines about private credit ‘cockroaches’ and Business Development Company investors running for the hills are a regular occurrence. Just how worried should we be about this burgeoning part of t...

Emerging Market Debt Commentary: April 2026

EM debt rebounded in April as improving risk sentiment lifted both hard and local currency debt, though geopolitical tensions and oil kept markets cautious.

2026 Capital Market Assumptions: The impact of AI on asset class returns

Assessing an environment pointing towards a structurally higher neutral rate, stronger long-term earnings growth, and a renewed need for discipline in both duration management and equity valuation.

Are There Unintended Risks in Your Capital Market Assumptions?

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an essential part of portfolio construction, but they can add unintended risks. Our approach rearranges the process, connecting risk assumptions directly with...

Multi-Asset Team: Capital Market Assumptions – 2026 update

The Multi-Asset Team provide an update on their long-term model-based expectations for capital markets at the start of 2026.

2025 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

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