Navigating the impact of the Middle East conflict

Assess the investment implications of the Iran conflict, and explore the potential economic and market impact under different scenarios, with the latest analysis from J.P. Morgan’s Market Insights team.

The Week in Markets

Gold tops Q2 fund-manager conviction as Hormuz shock reshapes allocations

Markets Recon's Allocator Pro ranks Gold/Precious (+7.4) at the top of manager conviction across equities, fixed income and alternatives for Q2 2026, ahead of Japan equities (+7.0), the energy sector (+6.8), EM local-currency debt (+6.0) and commodities (+5.7).

UBP - Union Bancaire Privée sits at maximum 5/5 conviction on gold, citing central bank diversification and persistent geopolitical risk, but Pictet raised a less-discussed downside: central banks may become net sellers to fund defence spending.

BNY Investments carved out an explicit portfolio role for TIPS as an inflation hedge after the Iran oil shock, while Invesco observed gold now sits 5–6 standard deviations above its real historical norms.

Visible Earnings: Financing the Future of Defense

Defense budgets are on the rise, but where is the money going and what does it mean for investors? In this episode, we describe how global defense spending is shifting from cyclical discretion into...

An advanced perspective on securities lending

Securities lending programs have many features that can make each one unique. This paper offers ways that beneficial owners can evaluate differences and identify the program best aligned with their...

Podcast: In tune with the markets – To the moon

Tune in to a new episode of In tune with the markets, combining the best of markets with the beat of music.

Latest Outlooks

Equity Outlook: Middle East War, Energy Shock Test Fragile Markets

Markets are pricing in a wider range of scenarios as geopolitics and AI reshape the landscape. Global equities declined during a volatile first quarter as the war in Iran roiled energy markets and...

Equity outlook: From positive to perilous

2026 equity outlook: Middle East risks, global market impact, and undervalued pharma—what investors should watch now.

Fixed-Income Outlook: From Oil Shock to Oil Spillover?

Oil’s rise could linger. Here are six ways bond investors can build resilience. Geopolitics rarely stay contained to the headlines for long. Conflict in the Middle East is already reverberating t...

2026 2Q outlook: Casting a wider net

Explore Nuveen's Global Investment Committee perspectives on the state of the economy, investment markets in 2026 and strategies.

2026 Capital Market Assumptions: The impact of AI on asset class returns

Assessing an environment pointing towards a structurally higher neutral rate, stronger long-term earnings growth, and a renewed need for discipline in both duration management and equity valuation.

Are There Unintended Risks in Your Capital Market Assumptions?

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an essential part of portfolio construction, but they can add unintended risks. Our approach rearranges the process, connecting risk assumptions directly with...

Multi-Asset Team: Capital Market Assumptions – 2026 update

The Multi-Asset Team provide an update on their long-term model-based expectations for capital markets at the start of 2026.

2025 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

While the year began with ever-shifting winds of change from the second Trump administration, these have settled into a more modest headwind.

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