Earnings Strength Overshadows Gulf Stalemate

Oil prices extended their gains this week as in-person negotiations between US and Iranian officials were canceled. Iran had proposed that they would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted its naval blockade of the waterway (setting aside nuclear negotiations to a later date), but the US rejected the proposal late this week. This news came amid reports that US President Doanld Trump is both planning to extend...

The Week in Markets

Fed holds as Powell exits — but most dissents since 1992

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5–3.75% at Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair, producing four dissents — the most since 1992. One governor called for an immediate cut; three others sought to strip the statement of its easing bias, implying the next move could be a hike as much as a cut.

PIMCO identified the fight over the word "additional" in the forward guidance as the real battleground.

Amova Asset Management characterised the result as a pivot to a "two-sided, higher-for-longer regime" in which easing is no longer the baseline. Warsh, cleared the Senate Banking Committee the same afternoon, inherits the most fractured FOMC of the modern era.

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