Cautious Optimism Amid Policy Uncertainty

Despite ongoing policy uncertainty and tariff-related volatility, we are cautiously optimistic thanks to resilient economic fundamentals, broadening equity market performance, and the potential for pro-growth policy shifts later in the second half of 2025.

The Week in Markets

Tariff tensions mount as markets eye July 9 deadline

Markets are bracing for potential upheaval ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline, with threats of unilateral levies up to 70% rattling global markets.

An Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management note highlighted the fiscal impact of the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” noting that while tariffs have yet to dent U.S. growth, the risks to inflation and inequality are rising. Neuberger Berman argued tariffs are a blunt tool that distort demand and damage purchasing power, but may spur investment opportunities abroad particularly in Europe and China.

Franklin Templeton echoed this view, warning that tariffs pose a dual threat of slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation, while...

U.S. Equities Market Attributes June 2025

Current events—which now include U.S. military action on top of global tariffs and economics—continued to evolve, but the S&P 500 rode with the changes, exhibiting lower volatility and spreads as i...

Selectivity pays as European high yield hits record

Primary issuance in the European high yield (HY) market surged in June with €21.2bn of supply marking the highest monthly volume on record.

Market flash: the One Big Beautiful Bill

•    A trade agreement with Vietnam has been reached, while negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Korea are proceeding with difficulty. •    So far the tariff war appears to be leaving little...

Latest Outlooks

2025 Midyear Global Outlook: Getting a grip on uncertainty

Twice a year, BlackRock’s senior portfolio managers and investment executives gather for two days to debate the outlook for the global  economy and markets – and its implications for portfolios. Si...

Midyear Outlook: Endurance by Design – Sustainable Investing through Resilient Thinking

As we enter the second half of 2025, we take the time to reflect on recent months, where headlines have pointed to continued market volatility, evolving investor sentiment, and policy uncertainty w...

Municipal Bond Market Mid-Year 2025 Review: Seeking Yield and Stability amid Market Volatility

The beginning of the year has been challenging for municipal bonds, as a combination of factors rattled the U.S. markets. Market volatility, largely driven by the announcement of tariffs on April 2...

Revisiting certain uncertainty – mid-year outlook

The first half of 2025 has not been dull. Many people, myself included, thought that the new Trump presidency would see some fireworks. 

Capital Market Assumptions

Capital Market Assumptions – Long-term return forecasts

Although navigating by the stars can seem brave and adventurous, we would not recommend it on financial markets. Better be equipped with a solid compass !

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2025

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Capital market assumptions

Our latest capital market assumptions (CMAs) include India rupee-denominated CMAs to capture the long-term opportunity we see unfolding in India. Our CMAs also reflect the rise in global bond yield...

Capital market assumptions | Q1 2025

Invesco Solutions develops capital market assumptions (CMAs) that provide long-term estimates for the behaviour of major asset classes globally.

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