How to position in fixed income as Fed hikes rates

Financial market coverage by the UBS CIO House View. The Fed’s hawkish rate hike has led markets to price in more tightening.

The Week in Markets

$100 oil lands on an already-hawkish Fed

Brent closed the week above $107, its highest since May, and the rates market had already reached its own conclusion before the moves even settled: fed funds futures now put a 25bp hike on 16 September at 72%. Next week the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all meet, and that pricing gets tested three times in five days.

Aviva Investors traced the surge through $100 to Middle East escalation, with European gas back at 2022 levels. That combination revived higher-for-longer inflation fears just as the US 10-year approached 5% and the 30-year Treasury reached its highest yield since 2007.

BNY Investments went further: the shift, in their view, is that supply shocks are no longer temporary. Tariffs, energy and bottlenecks are broadening into core inflation and testing anchored expectations, which may force central banks to respond rather than look through the noise

Latest Outlooks

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Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts

Our global capital markets outlooks generally moved lower in the second quarter as risk assets rallied sharply. The rebound reversed much of a first-quarter rotation into value stocks, with strong...

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Our Mid-Year Capital Market Assumptions highlight that asset return forecasts have generally improved, supported by higher interest rates and more attractive equity valuations. Our 10-year assumpti...

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CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS - July 2026

Our latest Capital Markets Assumptions point  to a familiar but important conclusion: we  still see a narrower band of outcomes across  asset classes, as central banks do less to  suppress rates in...

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